Pakistan is a complex nation with several centres of power – the Army,
the ISI, the extremists, the religious groups and the beleaguered civilian
establishment. From a “failed state” it is soon becoming a “pariah state.” One
thing is certain that there has been a “silent coup” in the country wherein
Nawaz Sharif has been overpowered by his name sake Chief of the Army Staff. The
former has not only been tamed but been made a lame-duck prime minister. The Army
is calling the shots, it is writing the script, it is dictating terms and the
civilian government is merely complying. In other words the power is anchored
in the Army, whose past record as far as stability in the country is concerned
has been dubious. With the reins firmly in the hands of the army, of course
without accountability, it is back to its old games viz a viz India. The
country is in turmoil and on the verge of an implosion. The jihadist monster it
nurtured for many decades in the past has now turned on the state. The Army has
its hands full combating the jihadists. It also has been infiltrated by these
elements thus threatening it from within as well as bringing terrorist culture
among its rank and file. The Army is fast losing its sheen and the pride of
place it once enjoyed.
Unable to control the jihadists at home the Pak Army decided to once
again play the “K” card. The first attempt was made in the beginning of the
year when the Chief of Army Staff reminded the nation and the international
community that Kashmir is its “Jugular Vein”. However, it did not find much
favour since the civilian establishment under Nawaz Sharif had a different
agenda including peace with India. The Army was hurt and preparations began to
force the Prime Minister to toe its line. Subsequent manoeuvres by the Army to
pressurise the civilian government leading to the siege of the capital city by
the two army-backed politicians that forced the premier to negotiate need no
repetition. India’s decision to call off
the Foreign Secretary level talks acted as the knockout punch in the fight for
supremacy between the army and the civilian establishment in favour of the
Army. The Army was over joyed because from here on they would have a free hand
in exploiting the “K” card for mustering anti-India sentiments in Pakistan
because the Pak Army considers Kashmir Issue as its raison d’etre. Pakistan
Army understands that the only glue that can galvanise and unite the whole
nation is the bogey of Kashmir. Thus, the plan to internationalise the Kashmir
issue formulated at GHQ, Rawalpindi began to unfold.
Nawaz Sharif was handed over a script to be read at the United Nations
General Assembly (UNGA). The establishment was shocked at the total neglect by
the international community of the speech made by the Pakistan’s Prime Minister
in which he unsuccessfully tried to internationalise the Kashmir issue. It was
further shocked when the Indian Prime Minister completely ignored the issues
raised by his Pakistani counterpart and instead drew the world’s attention to
the tragic disaster that had struck the state. Furthermore, no mention was made
of Kashmir in the bilateral summit between the US President and Indian Prime
Minister. It was a clear signal that USA is committed to bilateral resolution
of issues between the two neighbours. Having got a beating at the UNGA, the Pak
Army returned to the home turf once again and thus followed a series of
statements by disgruntled and disgraced politicians and a former dictator
claiming Kashmir to be a disputed territory and a legal issue. This attempt
also failed to provoke the Indian Government that once again ignored the
Pakistani rhetoric acerbating army’s
frustration.
On the other hand the Indian government was seriously addressing the
issue of “gaps in defence preparedness” that had resulted in India losing its
conventional superiority over its arch rival Pakistan. The Indian Defence
Minister had given a “go ahead’ and cleared for purchase many crucial long
pending projects. The thrust given by the new government to defence
preparedness through new raisings, modernisation and reequipping of its Armed
Forces badly rattled the Pak Army. The security establishment concluded that
once India regains its conventional superiority the “K” card could become a
non-issue. Pak Army could not afford to
allow this to happen. Its frustration translated into its compulsion. It once
again decided to provoke India and draw international attention towards
Kashmir. It was also afraid of the adverse publicity it would attract in case
it activated the Line of Control because of the havoc caused by the flood and
the ongoing festive season of Eid. It decided to activate the International
Border (IB) this time. Pakistan does not recognise the settled status of IB but
refers to it as a “Working Boundary” emphasising the disputed status of the
state of Jammu & Kashmir.
The intense shelling of the civilian settlements close to the border
resulting in loss of valuable human lives, cattle and standing paddy crop was a
most barbaric act which any civilised and professional army should never do. It
was simply an act of terror from across the border. Pakistan Army disgraced
itself and behaved like a terror army. To justify its misadventure and
internationalise the issue it blamed Indian forces for initiating the ceasefire
violations and demanded monitoring of the violations by United Nations Military
Observers Group in India & Pakistan (UNMOGIP) that has become irrelevant
after the Shimla Accord.
The reasons for the timing are obvious. Impending winters, dwindling
strength of the terrorists in Kashmir, and a large number waiting to be
infiltrated are adding to the frustration of Pak Army. It also intends to
divert the jihadists from Afghanistan into Kashmir. All this is intended to
keep the pot boiling even during the winters so that Kashmir continues to draw international
attention.
India has responded maturely and like a responsible nation. At the
tactical and operational level the policy of “Graduated Response” has been
replaced by “Intense Response” that paid dividend. The statements of top Indian leadership
indicate a shift in strategy from “Deterrence” to “Compellence.” India has made
bilateralism and no terror as planks of its strategy. It refuses to succumb to
Pak’s pressure tactics to force India to the table. A pariah state does not
follow rules and conventions. Pakistan is not going to be quiet for long. Its
Army would react after regrouping. India cannot afford to lower its guard. The
Armed Forces would have to remain alert and use the intervening period for
further “Capacity Building.” The damages caused to the fence, DCB and other
structures on the border and Line of Control need focussed attention. Our
intelligence apparatus would have to be on its toes. The door to negotiations should not be
completely shut.
(The author is a Jammu based political commentator, security and
strategic analyst. The views of the author are personal. He can be contacted at
anil5457@gmail.com)
